The output balance of +14 was below the forecast of +28 for Q2. A balance of +15 is forecast for the coming three months

The latest Printing Outlook survey from the BPIF highlights concerns over mounting costs and Brexit negotiations but growth and stability could be on the way. 

In the second quarter of 2017, 38% of printers increased output levels. A further 39% held output steady whilst 24% experienced a decline in output. The resulting balance (the difference between the ups and the downs) was +14; compared to +27 in Q1. However, the latest Q2 balance compares favourably to last year’s equivalent Q2 balance of 3. 

Encouragingly, 39% of respondents predict that they will increase output levels in Q3; 37% expect output levels to hold steady, while 24% forecast that output will fall. The forecast balance of +15 for Q3 would, if realised, be a welcome period of stability following the Brexit negotiations, the post-election period and the summer holiday season.

Competitors pricing below cost continues to be the most voiced business concern, cited by 70% of respondents. Paper and board prices remains the second ranked concern, selected by 42%.

Survey respondents have become less confident regarding the outlook for the UK economy during the Brexit negotiation period and following the UK’s withdrawal from the EU; 15% of respondents are now “somewhat confident” regarding the outlook for the UK economy, down from 24% in Q2.

‘Currently there is no issue that will divide industry opinion more than Brexit,’ stated Kyle Jardine, BPIF research manager. ‘On the anti-Brexit side, respondents have expressed embarrassment, anger and concern that the instability and uncertainty is incredibly damaging – in particular there are worries over the price and supply of their raw materials and ability to sell to Europe. […] On the pro-Brexit side most comments refer to a desire to just get on with it, we can make a success out of it and it will be better for us to make our own decisions.’

‘The realities of Brexit are beginning to come out, though there is still some way to go,’ commented Charles Jarrold, BPIF chief executive. ‘Meanwhile much of the industry continues to operate in a climate of rising costs and falling margins. However, the newly introduced productivity data in the full Printing Outlook report does show that the industry is driving progress in efficiency.’  

For more see www.britishprint.com/printingoutlook