The latest BPIF Printing Outlook survey reveals that the UK print sector enjoyed a positive Q3 period, with upbeat expectations for Q4 also being registered. However, Brexit, it seems, is casting a greater shadow over the confidence of British printers than ever before.

According to the survey, 44% of printers increased their output levels in Q3 of 2018, 33% held steady, and 23% experienced a decline. This provides a balance between the ups and downs of +21, which is just below the +23 forecast in the previous Printing Outlook report. For the final quarter of the year, more than half of respondents (55%) predict that they will increase output levels, with just 18% forecasting a reduction. Should this balance of +37 be realised during Q4 it would be a seasonal boost that was once considered ‘normal’, and last experienced in 2015 – before the EU referendum.

In that regard, Brexit is now the third highest ranked concern for printers (44% of respondents choosing in their top three business concerns), behind paper and board prices (65% of respondents) and competitor pricing (56%).

The BPIF says it has needed to re-scale its Brexit Barometers to account for the ‘nosedive’ in confidence levels brought about by the uncertainty and political machinations around Prime Minister May’s deal with the EU. Only 7% of respondents are now ‘somewhat confident’ about the UK’s economic outlook, and not a single one responded as ‘very confident’. However, 60% are now either ‘somewhat unconfident’ (38%) or ‘very unconfident’ (22%) – this last category has risen from 8% in the Q3 Printing Outlook report. The BPIF said that by some distance this was the most pessimistic reading yet of Brexit and its implications from UK printers.

BPIF research manager Kyle Jardine commented: ‘There’s just no getting away from Brexit, and the industry will be hoping that the current political manoeuvres don’t put the kibosh on the end-of-year seasonal boost.

‘New questions to our survey have helped us pick up that the printing industry is most concerned about further general cost inflation, the impact of both tariff and non-tariff barriers and labour shortages. There are also supply chain concerns – as a result a certain degree of targeted stockpiling has begun.’

Charles Jarrold, BPIF chief executive, added: ‘We have ramped up our Brexit-related advice – I urge the industry to visit britishprint.com to access this information.’